The number 1250 is a near-term interim target for atmospheric concentrations of methane (1250 parts per billion) akin to the long-term 350 (parts per million) stabilization target for CO2.
The non-CO2 forcings deserve emphasis comparable to that placed on CO2.
Expected difficulties in slowing the growth rate of CO2 and eventually stabilizing atmospheric CO2 amount make the non-CO2 forcings all the more important.
- James Hansen, Former Director, NASA GISS
We have reached a planetary climate emergency. Something must be done. As in all emergencies, the order and timing of our responses will now become critical.
According to several of the world’s preeminent sea ice experts, one of whom is a member of this group, the Arctic summer sea ice minimum is likely to reach near-zero just a few years from now, decades sooner than predicted by most major climate models. Because of the immense stores of methane and other carbon locked in the Arctic, the dramatically accelerating input of summer insolation into the Arctic ocean as more and more of the summer sea ice disappears, and the probable connections between these Arctic changes and increased extreme weather at lower latitudes, the risks of allowing the Arctic to melt unchecked are becoming untenable. Something must be done about it.
1250’s mission is to help shift our orientation towards, and contribute to the development of, intelligent and well-informed near-term climate strategy to help alleviate this near-term crisis, without impeding any longer-term actions or goals. In this way, 1250 provides a vital component missing from the ’350 movement’ begun by Bill McKibben. 1250 is not just an advocacy group for methane cuts, moreover. Rather, it is a group focusing on near-term climate as a whole, and the remaining practical pathways to constructing a ‘climate bridge’ to a stable future.
Steep black carbon cuts, for example, will also be essential to building that bridge. The non-CO2 contributions to current warming taken together still exceed those of CO2 (they total about 57% of warming since industrialization), so there is considerable potential to alleviate our immediate situation through these means, and black carbon cuts in particular could bring their benefits quickly to the rapidly accelerating Arctic crisis.
Unfortunately, however, ‘doing the math’ accurately these days suggests that even with the most rapid reductions of black carbon, methane and other non-CO2 components (in addition to massive CO2 cuts, of course), emissions reductions alone will not be able to reverse the so-called death spiral of Arctic sea ice. 1250 thus advocates an immediate, holistic Arctic ‘rescue package,’ including some mild, local engineered interventions. We agree fully with the goals of Greenpeace and their ‘Save the Arctic’ program, but apart from pledging to keep out fossil fuel interests, Greenpeace has not yet detailed any way to save it.
If the Arctic is left to keep melting, moreover, it will become well-nigh impossible to stop the fossil industry from moving in, making this one the largest societal tipping points of our time. Either we move in the direction of 1250 – which demands a change of consciousness about the plurality of climate change causes and cures – or we will quite likely slide inexorably into a catastrophic future, even if positive steps are taken to move towards clean energy and lower CO2 emissions.